The Conservatives continue to claim that Britain is “lagging behind” the rest of the developed world, that the debt owed by Government is out of control or too high, and that Labour created the recession.
I thought now would be a good time to set out some facts.
DEBT
Government debt in the UK as we come out of the recession is now 68.7% of GDP. That’s a lot higher than it has been under Labour. However in the USA it’s 84.8% and in Germany it’s 78.7%. In France it’s 75%. So we’re doing better than our major economic competitors. Let’s also remember that it rose to 53% under the Tories duing the 1990s and Labour paid it down to under 40% during the economic growth of the last 10 years. Labour’s sound economic management put us in a better position than the USA, Germany or France to survive the global downturn caused by the credit crunch. Historically debt has been higher than 50% for most of the last 100 years – at some points higher than 100%. Now we are in growth we can start to tackle this debt with a balanced programme of spending cuts.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Our latest unemployment rate is 8%. That’s far too high. But on the positive side it is lower than the EU or World average, and lower than the USA (10%), Germany (8.2%) or France (9.7%). Why? Because Labour’s programmes like the New Deal and the Jobs Guarantee have steadily reduced long term unemployment over the last 12 years. So we went into the recession in much better shape. In fact, unemployment in every region is still lower now than it was under the Conservatives.
INTEREST RATES
Everyone knows that under Labour, we have had the lowest mortgage and interest rates for decades. But what people may not realise is how vital this is to ensure economic recovery. Under the Tories in the 1990s we had high interest rates – up to 15% at one point. This meant that ordinary people were finding it hard to keep up with mortgage payments and it also plunged over 1m people into negative equityas house prices fell. There were thousands of repossessions. This time, house prices stabilised faster and the low interest rates meant mortgages got cheaper. Incidentally our interest rates at 0.5% are half those of the Eurozone (France and Germany) which is at 1% and only a quarter of a percent higher than Canada, USA and Switzerland.
INFLATION
Inflation or deflation can destroy an economic recovery. We were massively fortunate that our policyof having an inflation target of 2.5%, delivering years of low but steady inflation, put the UK in an excellent position to steer the right course through the downturn. During the recession, inflation went up as high as 5% and down as low as 1%. It’s now back at 2.9% just above our target rate of 2.5%. Inflation is lower in the Eurozone at 1%, and 2.72% in the USA.
GROWTH
In January, the UK officially left the recession registering a small level of growth for the final quarter of 2009 at 0.1%. Economic commentators expect this to be revised upwards after strong Christmas trading. It is true that other countries recorded economic growth earlier – although the USA for example also had a sharper downturn and sharper recovery thanks to a huge stimulus package. A more sensible comparison could be made with the worldwide 2001-02 recession which the UK escaped entirely, and the 1991-92 recession under the Tories. In the 1990s we had a double-dip recession, that is that the Tories did the wrong things at first and choked off the recovery.
SUMMARY
We have spent sensibly – less than the USA – and come out steadily with all the right indicators for sustained economic growth. Our long term policies of only borrowing to invest and keeping inflation, unemployment and interest rates low, plus paying down the Tories’ debt, put us in the best position to weather the storm. Our prompt action to protect the banking system and stimulate the economy, as well as leading the world debate on the response to the credit crunch, has put us in the best place to recover.
The Tories would have let the banks fail, meddled with interest rates, slashed spending and plunged us into a disastrous depression. Now they are arguing for spending cuts and tax cuts – there is still time for them to choke off the recession like they did last time. Don’t let’s give them the chance to do it.